From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”